Anyone who has played fantasy football -- or is married to someone who has -- knows that there is an element of luck to being successful. I'm not trying to say that all of it is luck, because it isn't. There is an awful lot of homework, stats, probability, and that gut-feeling involved. That being said, there is an element of just flat out luck that is entirely undeniable.
People who play fantasy football often refer to the "fantasy gods." We think of these entities as beings that only exist to sit on a giant tailgate in the sky raining down their favor, or more frequently, their wrathful disdain on us lowly stat-jockies.
I'm a believer. Not in a deity that exists to typically ruin my Sundays. But I am a believer in bad luck, and I've got it like a near fatal rash.
Allow me to share some of the more memorable moments in the bad luck train that seems to derail every season.
I've been playing with the same group of guys since 2010. I look forward to draft day more so than I do my own birthday. It's a big deal in my little world. I've managed to run place either the bottom or the middle of the pack every single year. Statistically, I should have finished better in a few of those years, but my bad luck is so incredibly present, like the dark side of the force, that I've never really managed to crawl out of the proverbial cellar.
In 2013, I was having a middling start and managed to make what should have been a positive season changing trade that dealt my best running back for the always dangerous Aaron Rodgers. Ours is a two QB league and that was what I was lacking. The trade went through and I set my line-up. I actually had a decent week and only needed a handful of points from Rodgers to win my match-up and solidify that trade as being the turning point in my season. Rodgers played on Monday night and was creamed on the opening drive and left with what would be a broken collarbone. Effectively rendering the trade as devastating on my part, and leaving me scraping the dregs of the waiver wire for another --far less talented -- quarterback to essentially finish out the season.
One year, I drafted Eli Manning just to watch him lead the league in interceptions. It was almost more amazing to watch how many INT's he could chuck up in game than to watch how that single handedly ruined my season.
This year, I read everything I could find in a printed magazine or on the internet related to fantasy football. I studied stats and probability. I studied average auction values based on number of teams, roster depth, and standard scoring format. When draft night came, I strolled in a changed man. No longer would I cry that I was a victim of the fantasy gods. Nay nay. I drafted in the manner in which I had planned and basically assembled the core team I was hoping for. My centerpiece: Andrew Luck. Yes, the Indianapolis Colts stud quarterback that led every article I could read as being the man to have. Thus far, he's leading the league in interceptions and has sat out a couple of weeks due to injury. (It's also worth noting that this is the first time in his career he's missed games due to injury)
I know everyone who plays could talk a couple of stories of how the bad luck bug has crept into their seasons. We all deal with it. But not all of those people are approached by league mates and asked to draft a specific player because of the belief that if I own them, it will ruin their season. I have become the bad luck hitman.
Watch out Tom Brady...mayhap I'm coming for you...
UPDATE: Since the initial publication of this blog post...Andrew Luck has taken to another injury. A lacerated kidney and possible abdominal muscle sprain or tear. Timetable to return, 2-6 weeks. I'd like to extend my wishes for his health, and my apologies for drafting him and possibly being partially responsible for this injury.
